Tropical Storms

Gang,

I have been interested in tracking hurricanes for over 30 years and yet I have never seen such a great tool as has just been passed along to me.

I don't know how accurate it actually is but is sure looks cool.

Take a look, let me know what you think.

  www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/hurricane-ike-2008

JD

Well, Fay continues to confound me. It looks like it confounds the professionals too.

Last evening it looked like there would be hurricane force winds at my house for 4 hours.

Today it looks like barely tropical storm force winds and I bet the 11 AM model runs show that dad burned storm hanging a hard left and heading back to the gulf!

I was all set to start boarding up, got all my wood and attachment gizmos gathered together, needed a few more wing-nuts so headed out to Home Depot shortly before they closed but they said only the Fleming Island had what I needed, it was too late to get to FI before they closed so I got up at 4 AM to get an early start on things only to see that everything had changed again!

I just took a look at Fay with data supplied by the National Hurricane Center.   The general concensus of the models has Fay at my house eventually as a Catagoty 1 Hurricane!   Yikes!

I am boarding up.  My place in Lake Asbury will be on the STRONG side of the storm.   I hope they're wrong!

JD

Pd. Pol. Adv. paid and approved by JD "Dan" Weisenburger, Republican, Clay County Commission, District 5

Fay has been an interesting storm for an amateur weather guy to watch! It just now has made its second Florida landfall in SW Florida. The forecast tract now has the storm passing back out into the Atlantic around Daytona. That's when things get interesting. The storm is not, at this time, expected to be strong because of the interaction with land BUT the storm is expected to make ANOTHER landfall, again in Florida! This time in Duval County. I know that sounds strange but that's the forecast. Apparently the winds that steer storms like this are causing a lot of confusion for the multiple models used and the forecasters as well. The normal forecasts within the shorter time frames are usually pretty accurate with a variation to the predicted tract of only +/- 50 miles at this point. Not so with Fay! My best guess is we should continue to watch this storm. With all the twists and turns it's a good thing it is not a major storm. On the bright side the aquifer needs as much recharging as it can get.

Dear Bloggers and Bolgettes:

Latest on Tropical Storm Fay shows that it may very well become a hurricane after it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico. Of concern to us in Clay County at this time is the potential for tropical storm force winds in our area. In 2004 we were plagued by Francis and Jean. At that time we had extended power outages in many places and a lot clean up after the storm. It was inconvenient but by no means devastating.

The winds in 2004 did not reach tropical storm force! An occasional gust but we did not have sustained winds of 39 MPH or higher.