Reality CheckRecently there was a visioning exercise conducted by Urban Land Institute to imagine what the First Coast Region would look like 50 years from now. Many dismiss such exercises as a waste of time, but I subscribe to the theory that “if you fail to plan, you plan to fail.” I’m sure most would agree that if a 50 year “vision” for north Florida would have been used in 1960, things would likely be different today. But in 1960, few could have imagined the explosion of growth about to hit Florida, and urban planning was not the science it is today. So here we are in 2010 (almost), and now what do we do? Plod along pretending it is still 1960, or try to imagine how we can make things better; that’s where visioning comes into the picture. The ULI exercise, called First Coast Reality Check, started with the 7 county region (Duval, Clay, St. Johns, Baker, Putnam, Flagler, and Nassau) with its current population and jobs, and projected population and job growth in the year 2060. It is conservatively projected that the region will grow by 1,600,000 people and 650,000 jobs by 2060. The exercise brought together 300 people from the region and broke them into 30 – 10 person teams. Each team had the same goal – distribute the 1,600,000 people and 650,000 jobs around the region. The teams collaborated to put the growth where they thought it made the most sense. As you can imagine, there were a variety of visions. But they fell mainly into 4 categories: urban-centric located mainly around the existing urban centers; corridor-centric with the growth spread along existing and newly created transit corridors (transit oriented development); growth-center related expansion that clustered growth in nodes loosely tied to the urban centers; and the continuation of apparently unplanned sprawl. There is a lot of info out there on the subject, but one good place to get information is www.regi.biz . Another is www.realitycheckfirstcoast.com . The point of this post is to continue to make the claim that “growth” – in all of its insidious forms – is a reality. Whether we like it or not, it’s coming. I submit that it is IMPOSSIBLE to stop. That means more. More of everything – people, cars, homes, jobs, money, crime, art, need for water, on and on and on. The thing to do is to plan for it and try to guide it in a manner that is best for the region. The entrepreneurs who are successful harnessing this growth will become the regions’ business leaders, employers, political leaders and philanthropists of the future. The fact there will be people who hold them in contempt is as predictable as the growth itself. But fortunately, the leaders choose to move ahead anyway. That’s what makes them leaders.
Submitted by lilyslore on Sun, 05/24/2009 - 4:21pm.
Baxley wrote: I submit that it is IMPOSSIBLE to stop. Such a depressing statement. Why do you throw in the towel so readily? It has been done quite successfully elsewhere. Try Carmel in upstate New York. They put a moratorium on all building in their piece of Paradise over twenty years ago. And they are very happy. Clay County is also a bedroom community. How can you admit a massive increase in crime as a part of "growth" and still claim "growth" is a good thing? Why are you not more considerate of honest hard working decent people? How about we retired people? There are more than enough houses available for anyone who wants to move here. We certainly don't need the coruption of those who feed vampiric like on the souls who have already made their peace? And don't try to convince me Wendell Davis is not a soul sucking vampire. Bax, you are normally a fair minded and considerate human being. Encouraging the destruction of Clay County is just not right. Let's revisit the necessity of growth after we rid ouselves of the hideous things such as Roy Lyons, Travis Cummings, Wendell Davis and the rest of these money grubbing and greedy monsters now in positions of "leadership". After all, even lemmings have leaders. Lily's Lore "I don't ever want to be rescued And I don't ever want to be saved I got a feelin' that I'm gonna be alive forever Dancin' on the edge of a grave..." Jim Steinman
Submitted by TruthHurts on Sun, 05/24/2009 - 10:28pm.
Bax Thanks for the post I enjoyed it. I agree growth is comming and there is nothing that is going to stop it. Change is constant and ALL is changing. The key is having the insight and vision to see the change comming and the courage and wisdom to mold it in such a manner that will do the most good for the most people. It is also the personal responsibilty of individuals to look ahead and make personal adjustments in thier lives to survive the changes. Life is but a moment and the moments gone, dust in the wind...all we are is dust in the wind. (Kansas). Nothing lasts forever! I am just thankful every single day I wake up in the morning and I am still alive....I thank God for one more day. The future and change is comming with or without me. Thanks again for the post. TRUTHHURTS Please go to http://www.fairtax.org/site/PageServer and sign the petition for the Fair Tax Bill. Tell Congress to pass this Bill.
Submitted by finder on Mon, 05/25/2009 - 7:07am.
Within the past 18 hours I and 4 hyper-active Hamsters were able to complete our studies of the projected dog population of Clay County by the year 2060. This study could only be conducted after the numbers from the Urban Land Institute visioning exercise established the projected population numbers. The purpose of this study was to determine how much the dog population would increase in Clay County and the surrounding area over the next 50 years. It was determined that the projected increase in dog population would be at least 2.6 million dogs. We didn't bother looking at the cat population growth simply because we don't deal in cats and the hamsters just couldn't deal with the stress of cat nightmares. These numbers were verified by the owners and production managers of the members of the puppy mills in the area. This tightly knit group that funded this study is known as the Metropolitan Region Producers of only Puppies. Although sometimes referred to as More Poop or Mister Poop by those that disagree with their over saturation of areas with puppies they say that the growth in the puppy numbers is just going to happen. There is nothing anyone can do about it. They assured us that this growth had nothing to do with their plans to open 3 new puppy mills per year for the next 50 years. Mr. Deep N. Crapp, Grand Poop Ba of MRPOOP stated; "The puppy mill business has gotten so bad lately that we have had to delay opening any new mills. If it doesn't get any better soon we're going to have to quit feeding them doggy Viagra. We've already had to cut production and we have a 2 year inventory at our mills." County leadership turned a deaf ear to the citizens that complained about the increased costs of infrastructure to keep the County from being buried in dog poop. They maintained that the dog crap impact fees were not good for business and that letting them put up signs on our county right of ways advertising their puppy mill locations and sales specials would help them out of their current business slump. "Look at the number of jobs this business creates. This is what we've needed in Clay County for many years. We finally have a business that produces something. Some might say they only offer low paying crappy jobs but we've worked hard to get to this point and I can't tell you how proud I am to be associated with this organization. They've stepped up to the plate just when we needed more crap to spread around." said one of the County's top leaders. When asked about the increased stress on our landfills Mr. Crapp pointed out that we had some naturally created holes in the ground out in the Key Stone Heights area. "We've got all those empty lakes just sitting there waiting to be filled in," he said. Apparently the plan is to fill them in with crap from their other puppy mills, pack it down real tight, and build another puppy mill on top of it. "What better use of our empty lakes?" asked his construction manager. When asked about the impact on the aquifer under those lakes, Deep's brother Bill D. Crapp indicated that there shouldn't be any problems with that. "They filter this stuff first don't they?" he asked. And so ends this chapter of the plan for turning Clay into the crappiest County in the state to further the profits of a select few members of More Poop. With apologies to the animal lovers in Clay County. No animals were harmed in the writing of this story. Mike Heemer
Submitted by kilroy on Mon, 05/25/2009 - 8:29am.
Finder, I must admit, you have behaived! I actually cringed at the thought of your response(s) (unfortunately, the door was opened wide). You did real good. P.S. not all hamsters are hyper-active. Please go to: http://www.petfinder.com/shelters/FL380.html
Submitted by Marsha on Tue, 05/26/2009 - 7:22am.
I could debate that growth is inevitable, I've lived in parts of the country that were not destroyed by rampant and irresponsible development and the quality of life was just fine. This term "visioning" is a setup to do away with what few restrictions are left for growth. Isn't the goal to do away with the Comp Plan? Crime is also inevitable, do we relax the laws making lets say mugging no longer a crime in order to lower the crime rate? There's no growth at the moment, isn't that the reason for the campaign to do away with impact fees? Who knows when the state will grow again, or the county. Clay County is like a family who exists on public assistance yet continues to produce children. We can't take care of what we already have, we don't need more to take care of. It irks me to hear a builder talk about how we need broad based tax solutions when you fight and resist any means for your industry to contribute to the traffic they increase and the damage to the roads from construction. Not all growth is good growth, and not all business is good business.
Submitted by Baxley on Tue, 05/26/2009 - 1:02pm.
Thanks for all the comments. Lily - I don't mean to sound like I'm throwing in the towel, just recognizing that population growth is inevitable - short of measures nobody wants to talk about. Some of those people will end up in Clay County. One of the priorities always mentioned at any of these planning/visioning excercises is the preservation of conservation land and agricultural land. After all - all of these new people need to eat too. There's a saying in Clay Hill I like - "Let's put up a gate and keep everyone out." Sounds good, but very unlikely. The "gate" is the Comp. Plan. And I already know the response is that it is too easy to change. The Commissioners vote on the changes, and they are all controlled by the developers who want the plan changed. I know the argument, I just don't agree with it. No one - me included - can say growth has not been poorly managed over the recent decades. But what is heartening is people recognize the problem and are trying to make changes. Personally, I love this stuff (visioning/planning). Here's where we're at today, where do we want to be tomorrow? The rub is convincing 7 counties that it is in our collective best interest to plan regionally. An earlier effort (Envision 2035 by the TPO) ran into resistance when it was suggested that federal transportation dollars may be tied to Counties Comp. Plans complying with this regional plan. What?!? If my County doesn't go along with the Regional Vision, the TPO wants to withhold transportation money???? " I don't THINK so" said more than one county official. Having a long-term vision is one thing. Implementing it is another. Agreeing that conserving and preserving are good ideals is simple. Telling a private landowner he/she can't do what they want with their property is a little stickier (go to a zoning hearing where a land owner is being told NO). Just so you know - I'm a country boy, born and raised. You couldn't pay me enough to live in a subdivision or apartment complex. But, to control sprawl we have to adopt higher densities. I'm all for it - as long as I still get to live in the boonies. Speak up. Speak out. Volunteer to participate in these efforts. Whether you believe it or not, the various officials want your input. They practically beg people to participate in these excercises. A good size group will start out but by the time the effort is through, the participants have dwindled to just a handful. And I'm talking about from around the entire 7 county region. It really is easy to be involved, if you have some patience and persistence. My last word - I am very optimistic about the future of the region. There is a huge awareness we have grown haphazardly in the past, and a real commitment not to do it again. I guess only time will tell. Also, NE Florida is hardly alone in this mess. There are regions all over the country trying to "vision" themselves into a better, more sustainable future.
Submitted by lilyslore on Tue, 05/26/2009 - 8:11pm.
From Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid: "I got vision and the world needs bifocals." These exercises are patently ludicrous. They are for pompous fools who think they are better than anyone else. Korporate Amerika developed the concept and look how well that's worked out for anyone but the scoundrels at the top. Lily's Lore "I don't ever want to be rescued And I don't ever want to be saved I got a feelin' that I'm gonna be alive forever Dancin' on the edge of a grave..." Jim Steinman People are talking about ...Here are the recent blog postings with the most comments. |
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Bax, you're right. Clay County's going to grow, and because it's Clay County (a pretty nice place to live) it's going to grow at a decent pace. We can't build walls around the border and we can't stop our citizens from replenishing the species.
Growth isn't bad. In fact, without growth the local economy cannot be healthy. It's poorly-planned growth that has overburdened the infrastructure. And part of the reason it was poorly-planned is that they didn't look far enough ahead.
Clay County has often failed to look farther into the future than some state statute required. County Commissioners seemed able to define the future only within the context of five- and 10-year plan. The result growth management that was reactionary instead of proactive. Government has to look farther than that. We all have to look farther than that.
So, in the exercise, you kept a handful of those jobs in Clay County and put all 1.6 million new residents in Jacksonville, didn't you, Bax?