Fay - Pay Attention To This Storm!
Dear Bloggers and Bolgettes: Latest on Tropical Storm Fay shows that it may very well become a hurricane after it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico. Of concern to us in Clay County at this time is the potential for tropical storm force winds in our area. In 2004 we were plagued by Francis and Jean. At that time we had extended power outages in many places and a lot clean up after the storm. It was inconvenient but by no means devastating. The winds in 2004 did not reach tropical storm force! An occasional gust but we did not have sustained winds of 39 MPH or higher. Fay has a strong potential to be a different beast. The center track of the current forecast has Fay crossing the western side of Clay County on Wednesday with sustained winds as high as 57 MPH during the peak hours. The present forecast places Middleburg on the strong side of the storm. The strong side is where you vector the sustained winds of the storm with the storms forward motion resulting in a higher wind speed than the overall forecast speed. Tropical storm force winds could be felt in our area as early as Midnight (Tuesday night /Wednesday morning). Of course there is a “Cone of Uncertainty” like in any storm but when I see that I am in the center of the cone I make preparations. I fill all my cars with gas. I buy my groceries now. I fill my generator and lawn equipment with gas. I refill my gas cans and my cars. And I put away all debris generating items like patio umbrellas and plastic deck chairs from around the pool area. I would be interested to hear if you take any precautions and what they might be if different from my own. You might find a useful website at www.hwn.org which has all the latest advisories, graphics of the storms forecast path and useful hurricane/tropical storm information. Among the advisories for a given storm is a discussion section from the National Hurricane Center which allows the public to understand some of the reasoning the forecasters are using. I hope you find this information helpful. JD I believe I am still required to post this disclaimer: Paid Political. Advertisement paid and approved by JD “Dan” Weisenburger, Republican, Clay County Commission, District 5 Related: JDW08's blog | login or register to post comments | printer friendly version | Tags: Hurricanes | local | Tropical Storms | weather | Winds
Submitted by JDW08 on Sun, 08/17/2008 - 6:32pm.
That's an excellent web site. I just ran my model here and it shows the track of Fay about 50 miles further west than before. That alone is better news for us but, the forecast model is showing sustained winds over western Clay County around 55 miles per hour and that is still significant so remain vigilant. I will do another run in the morning and see what has changed. BTW: for those non-military types, on the webside from the above link there are time stamps drawn to specific points along the path Ex: 20/1800Z This means August 20 at 1800 Zulu (Zulu is the same as GMT) which translates in to 2:00 PM Wednesday. One interesting feature I saw on that web site was that as the track passes near the The software I use very closely matches what is posted on that web site with slight variations.
JD Pd. Pol. Adv. Paid for and approved by JD Weisenburger, Republican, for County Commission
Submitted by jimmaxie on Sun, 08/17/2008 - 7:37pm.
Watch out for the arrival of Jim Cantore to a beach near you...You know we are in deep do-do when Jim shows up. Get your water and supplies NOW. Extra cash, extra meds, fill your gas tanks, NOW. Last time we were without power for 16 hours, not as bad as St Aug or some other areas, but still was a long hot night! Clay Electric did an awesome job getting things back to normal...CLAY ELECTRIC ROCKS!!! try out your generator now, make sure it is going to work when you need it.
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I have found this web site to provide accurate tracking info. Once you open it click on the named storm from the list on the left side. The click on the graph which appears to blow it up. The box will have the CPA and eta of the eye to various points along the track. Right now it is predicted to be 9 miles from JAX at 1900Z on the 29th.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html