I really enjoy reading the variety of posts on MyClaySun.com. I’ve learned a lot reading the blogs and the comments to them. Here in Clay County, Florida, there are a few topics that are guaranteed to receive a lot of opinions and comments. The growth-developer-politician topic is one of those. As a member of the ‘evil’ development industry that is peopled by, apparently, more thieves and scoundrels than ever sailed the high seas under a pirate’s blackjack, I’m going to offer – again – my 2 cents worth on the topic. These days, that’s about all I can afford. As soon as our industry’s lobbyists are able to persuade the crooked politicians to open up a few more DRI’s, maybe I’ll give you my 10 cents worth. (That, my friends, is called angry sarcasm.)
Since the beginning of life on Earth – either the one-celled variety of evolution or the Adam & Eve variety of the Bible – the planet has experienced growth. Which ever version you go with, there has been, and continues to be, a lot of begatting going on. Humans are settled in every imaginable corner of this globe - deserts, mountains, valleys and dales. Cities below sea level, cities above cloud level and everywhere in between.
Population density is determined by the (# of people) divided by the (area) [land only] they live in. The following stats are expressed in “people per square kilometer”. I found this stuff interesting – hopefully you will too.
Puerto Rico = 446/sq km; Japan = 339; Israel = 325; United Kingdom = 246; Italy = 193; France = 110; Cuba = 102; Spain = 89; Iraq = 66; Mexico = 55; US = 31. States: NJ = 440; Conn. = 271; FL = 114; CA = 86; GA = 55; TX = 31; MS = 23; AZ = 17; ND = 4; AK = 0.42
Closer to home: Clay = 120/sq. km.(148 if you take out the 295 sq. km. of Camp Blanding); Duval = 413; Orange = 397; Miami-Dade = 473; St. Johns = 92; Earth = 45
So what, right? I’m just trying to offer some perspective. As “horrible” as living in over-crowded Clay County is, we’re really not that over-crowded. We’re just over the Florida average (114) and somewhere between Italy and France globally speaking. Florida is the 8th densest state, between Delaware (155) and Ohio (107), and in Florida, Clay ranks 24th of 67 counties. I’m not saying we shouldn’t worry about uncontrolled growth – we’d be fools to ignore it. But I’m not quite ready to pack up and move to Alaska just yet.
Per the EAR, Clay is projected (by the great projectors in the sky I guess) to grow from approx. 180,000 now to approx. 250,000 by 2015. In 1950, Clay had 14,323 people. In 2000, it was 140,814. Any guesses for 2050? I’ll take a stab at it – somewhere between 400,000 and 500,000. That’s using the “projected” growth rate for the US.
Home builders and developers will be chomping at the bit to respond to – repeat for effect – respond to this increase in the number of people living on the planet (and the ones here in Clay County). Guess what – Publix and Winn Dixie will be chomping at the bit to sell them groceries, and WalMart is already planning new stores to locate near them to sell them all the “stuff” they need to live. It’s what businesses do – provide a supply for a demand.
None of the above business activities create growth. All take advantage of it. Like a lot of bloggers, I’m letting off a little steam, and offering another side of the story.
Clay County is a great place to live. A REALLY great place to live. Whether we like it or not, over time, more people are going to be living here in the future than are living here now. They will buy houses, rent apartments, buy condos and buy mobile homes. They will live in DRI’s and trailer parks. They will crowd our schools, our highways, our jails and our churches. It will require cutting down trees to make room for them. And they are going to drink, and flush with, our water.
I don’t care who you vote for in August (or November), that is a projection you can count on. Beware the pol who says they will “control” growth. They may be able to vote NO for a given DRI or YES on the next impact fee, but I assure you they will not be able to “control” growth. A strong-willed planning department guided by a concerned, knowledgeable BCC, adhering to a Comprehensive Plan that has been created with a lot of citizen involvement is a good start. But thinking the “county” has the ability to stop growth is unrealistic. I recommend you join the other 15 people (out of 180,000) who participated in the citizen involvement portion of drafting the Evaluation and Appraisal Report for the Comprehensive Plan, and be hands-on. Don’t sit back and let the inevitable growth ruin your day. It’s coming. The thing to do is be involved with preparing for it, and guiding it. You can believe builders & developers, grocery stores, hospitals, and WalMart are going to do just that.
Thanks – I feel better now.