THE BUBBLE THAT DID NOT BURST ACCORDING TO WHOM
Today I would like to discuss and ask that you all consider whether you think the large 3 DRI’s proposed for Clay County should be delayed? I ask you be honest in your feelings and do not hold back any thoughts.
As an appraiser I have certain information sources the average person does not have so I want to share with you some of the facts about Clay Counties real estate market as of June 28, 2008. These following figures do not count homes for sale by owner or sales by owners . The following is extracted from Multiple listing service from North East Florida, the numbers reflect active listings as of this date etc .
Number of Listed homes Number sold in last year Monthly absorption rate
Green Cove 303 240 12
Current backlog 25 Months
Keystone Hgts 195 109 9
Current backlog 22 Months
Middleburg 509 404 33
Current backlog 15 Months
Orange Park 942 731 61
Current backlog 15 Months
Fleming Island 503 377 31
Current backlog 16 Months
New Construction listed through the MLS and New Construction sales through MLS are included in the figures above.
The St Petersburg times as well as all the major papers except the Florida Times Union have noted that speculators/investors who spur new construction have pulled out of Florida. Further the St Petersburg Times notes that the impact of insurance and property tax rates, despite the first round of tax cuts approved by Statewide vote, have resulted in Florida being named the U-turn State. Furthermore First Coast news noted that Clay County in 2005 had 898 Lis Pendens filed and in 2006 it jumped 3.9% and has increased even further. It should be noted that sometimes it takes a couple of years for these homes to hit the market.
The above figures are not stationary, each day foreclosures and new construction is completed and offered for sale. A normal in balance market is a backlog of 6 Months or less. A balanced Market allows for appreciation rates to be positive. A Market that has a greater absorption rate creates a declining market and thus we lose our equity and net worth.
The Beltway was planned in a balanced market, decided in a hot market, and now possibly it as well as the proposed development must be re-looked at otherwise the absorption rate and backlogs will increase at such a rate even greater loss of personal wealth will occur.
I am enclosing a link for Middleburg which shows the ups and downs of average property values from 2003-2008.
I ask you all to weigh in on this issue. I listen to all views and opinions.
Thank you.
MIDDLEBURG, FL (zip code 32068) real estate - home value estimator, recent home sales , house value trends [1]