The Real Estate Market is Seeing Signs of Life

Ma'am: I appreciate your educating me about the housing market here in Clay.  I'm thinking about buying a house for the first time - as soon as I finish dealing with my **** wife who committed adultery on me while I was gone serving my country and now decides she doesn't want to be married to me.  I feel a little more confident - maybe - about buying.  Thanks 

You need to do a little more research before putting out information about the Navy at NAS JAX.

The Navy is MOVING a base from Brunswick, Maine. These are typically P3 pilots who love Jacksonville.  They have lived in high cost areas like San Diego, and they would love to make Jacksonville their last tour of duty.

Yes the Navy is moving the squadrons from Brunswick to JAX. But as they are just finishing the decom of all the S-3 squadrons it is going to be almost a wash. Some increase in personnel but not much.

There are no P-3 squadrons in San Diego. Haven't been for years. You might be thinking of S-3 pilots. Not the same thing. One has a tail hook the other doesn't.

Though it is obviously cold up there I think it is cheaper to live there than it is here.

Gotta make sure you know what you're talking about before you use the Navy as a sales pitch.

Mike Heemer

Eden, I love that name!  Did you make a typo on the 631 homes have sold since Jan 2004, perhaps you meant 2008?  Making that assumption, if it's taken six months for 634 home to sell and there are 2,240 on the market then there is an 18 mth supply of homes on the market right now.  In order to determine where there is truly a "glut" of homes on the market the geographic parameters must be reduced to a specific market area.  There are many markets in the county where supply and demand are still in balance and while the appreciation rates have slowed down to the rate of inflation or slightly below it values overall are stable.  County wide it's not a pretty picture.

How many are for sale, pending etc I assume you're basing that upon NEFARs MLS or have you included all FSBO organizations as well?  I see homes listed in Realty Trac that are not in the local MLS system also.

There have been several articles as of late via FAR of the hair pulling experience of trying to purchase a "short sale" home, anyone looking for a home they want to live in and don't have 6 or 8 months to waste might want to avoid these properties.

"Staging" a home may help sell it more quickly, most of all though I think sellers, if they are not motivated and willing to wait for an adequate exposure to the market are getting full market value.  If you want to sell your home inside of 30 days then expect to lose money.  Marketing times vary not only in area, but also vary based upon what it is.  Million dollar homes for example typically will sit on the market for at least a year due to the more limited number of qualified buyers. 

There are so many stories and statistics out there, sometimes it's hard to know what to believe, but I hope you're right.  Everything I've seen makes me think a turn around will start by the end of the year but it will take several years to actually recover fully. 

I just did a market analysis of the County and my information supplied by FAR says that in the last six months 906 resales sold and there have been 333 new residential construction starts. 

I kicked that six months back out to a year and from 06/07-06/08 there were 3,065 resales in the County, with 1,189 new construction starts.  Looking at 06/06-06/07  there were 5,433 resales with 2,172 new construction starts.  Go back to 06/05-06/06 and there were 3.067 resales with 1,649 new construction starts.

From 06/07-06/08 the "average" resale price of a home was 160,195K, in the first six months of 08 the average resale price is 131,013.  In a 12 mth period of 06-07 the average resale price of a home was 181,234K.  In June of 05-06 it was 179,582K.

Like I said, countywide it's not a pretty picture, overall that's a 50K loss in value of the average resale value in the last three years, but not all market areas are actually dropping in value. 

Lenders would be alot less skittish if AVM's were not based upon zip codes but a geographically competent market analysis.  Many underwriters who have no educational nor licensing requirements will often believe an AVM over an Appraisal, and that is also part of the problem.

no clue as to what I just read

I really don't like raining on someone's parade or blog but I think Marsha may be more in line with what is really going on in the housing market in Florida.

Released today by CNNmoney.com:"Clearly things in California and Florida are going to get worse before they get better," said Brinkman.

 http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/homes-in-foreclosure-top-1-million.html 

the starter of this blog is trying to drum up business. Putting up a rosy picture of the future of home sales, when it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see all the for sale signs in neighborhoods and figure out whats up. What would make me think I could sell my home in this kind of market. 

http://www.edenjordan.com/

I find it ironic that using a blog for business could be considered a horrible breach in etiquette... especially considering that in the one week I've been on this site I've seen people using it to run a political campaign, to smear elected officials or businesses, and to espouse bigoted hatred.

All apparently acceptable, but don't try and use all the tools necessary to conduct your business in a tight economy.

myclayhome;

Please do yourself a favor and read the terms of use that each yuo agreed to when you signed up to use this blog sight.

Do you notice that MCS is a for profit operation? Do you notice that it sells advertising space? Do you notice that it says you cannot advertise for free on this site?

Sneaking a free ad in on this site is tatmount to stealing. It jepordizes the continued existance of this site. MCS cannot exist if they don't make a profit.

Pretty simple concept there.

Mike Heemer

Right, but the original post was the beginning of a good point-counterpoint to which you and Marsha both added great commentary.

There was no commercial until some else posted her website.

myclayhome;

Yep! I made a comment. Check out the last line.

Gotta make sure you know what you're talking about before you use the Navy as a sales pitch.

I did some research before I made my comment. I knew who she was and where she worked. This is not the first blog she's written. They all kind of skirt around the edge.

If it had been blatant I would have emailed MCS to point it out. In this case I made a comment hoping she would get the hint.

But it was a good point counter point wasn't it? Hmm! I guess even I have some strange circular logic on occasion. : )

I love your last comment: and to espouse bigoted hatred. Thank you!

Mike Heemer

Myclayhome,

That's just because there are smart people here and if they are not following the money, following the breadcrumbs or connecting the dots they just leave the blog for a minute and figure out where the blogger posting could be leading us. 

The person posting was leading and jimmaxie followed.  Jimmaxie did her homework, like any good blogger should.

It wasn't out of the good of her heart that this particular blog was posted, it was business driven.  That's no crime, just not allowed on myclaysun, unless you pay for the priviledge.

It has been discussed here before as well about how such blogs and comments push down and out other blog conversations that were going on and that it makes it harder to find new entries.

This is a lot like those HOA's.  People who follow the rules get pretty upset with those that don't and those that claim not to know about the rules and regulations.  Either that or the notion that it doesn't apply to them.  There was another realtor just a couple of weeks ago doing the same thing and their blog was eventually removed.  I am not sure why the guy that talks about golf isn't treated the same way.

Read44, I think there are some that are allowed to do some soft advertising provided they offer free advice on their area of expertise, but don't hold me to that.  I seem to remember Jonathan addressing that at some point.  I agree that the Golf thing appears to be bordering on just advertising and nothing more. 

I really didn't see the original post as advertising, leading perhaps but not advertising.  Talk about your multitude of opinions, Real Estate is full of them, my field especially.  Now you would think it would be really cool to get paid for "your opinion" but in the reality that for as many individuals are giving an opinion you will get that many all going in different directions.  That's why I don't say a whole lot about it.  I can't even give someone an opinion on a specific property just in conversation here because regardless of how I give it....it's considered an Official Opinion of Value and I can be held liable for it.....which sucks.  I honestly just enjoyed conversing about the current market even though I do not have the freedom to converse that a Realtor has, I can only speak in generalities about the overall market. 

Now before anyone wants to accuse me of advertising, we don't advertise to Homeowners...period.  We discourage (won't accept) homeowners from ordering Appraisals on their homes because not all lenders will accept an Appraisal from just anyone, they have lists of "Approved Appraisers" and ordering one on your own could very likely result in a homeowner having to pay for more then one Appraisal.  It is normally only when there is a death that we will do Retrospective Appraisals for the family for Tax & Estate Purposes.   I'm not going to take money from a Homeowner on something where I feel their money could be wasted, and that is why we just don't do them for individuals for purchase or refinancing.  It is in their best interest to allow their lender to order it.

My other bit of free advice is to pay attention to your Good Faith Estimate, and ask questions.  Many lenders or their management companies make money off of the Appraisals and I've always thought that was wrong.  If you don't pay your Appraiser at the door, then what you pay at closing and what the Appraiser actually received can be two different things. 

I think a review of recent indicators may show a different picture concerning the housing market.

June 5th- they report,  More than one million homes are now in foreclouser, the highest rate ever recorded, according to a trade group which warned Thursday that number will continue to climb.

http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/homes-in-foreclosure-top-1-million.html

June 6th- the report, Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080606/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

June 6th- they report, Stocks fall sharply on surge in oil, jobs data

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080606/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

Maybe any Expert Blogger here should identify themselves as such.  Maybe you pay for the right to be called an Expert on myclaysun, I don’t know, probably.  That would explain why some blogs are removed and others are not.  I would prefer that retail or commercial blogs were not presented on the blogs because we can’t tell the difference and spend too much time chastising them. 

If I need an expert I can find one, after all I am already on the information highway.  If someone were asking a question of the bloggers and wanted an answer, I suppose that would be different but I don’t recall anyone really opening their blog asking for expert advice about golf, real estate, restaurants or gambling, all of which have been subjects of blog entries that seem to be soliciting for business.  When someone was asking about restaurants they were asking other bloggers and/or consumers to give their opinions.  They would not have expected Burger King to come on here and say that their food is the best.  They were looking for unbiased opinions from other area consumers.  I could see how that sort of thing could still be manipulated; say someone came on and asked a question like that and their colleague came on with an answer about this wonderful new restaurant that serves the best “whatever” in town.  How would we know?   

Remember the re-decorating lady.  She identified herself as an expert and her blog was not removed, so maybe she paid for the right.  I also noticed though that she never really gave any advice when asked about something personally specific. In this blog she said that myclaysun asked her to be an Expert Blogger.

http://myclaysun.com/node/1984

I like hearing the facts about the real estate market, but I want the facts, not spin.

The blogs that were removed recently (Flemingislandgolfacademy, Suncruz, and a realtor)  were not expert bloggers. They took advantage of MCS and posted blogs that were considered advertisement and did not pay MCS. FIGA had a total of 7 threads since February that somehow slipped under MCS's radar until recently.

Mike

I appreciate you clarifying the difference between a P3 and an S3 squadron.  But the fact remains, that there are people moving here from Brunswick Maine and they will turn into buyers.  I can not sit here and have you talk so negatively about the real estate market with out knowing what we are seeing on the front lines of this fiasco. 

What I said was that I am seeing some life in the Real Estate market.  It is summer and people are moving.  There are still people relocating to Clay County and buying homes.  I also said it may not be a good time for you to sell.  I stated that you must be priced right and have a home in tip top condition to compete.

If you say you know who I am, then you would know that I have told many sellers not to sell their homes right now, 12 sellers this year in fact.  When I go on an appointment I am very upfront with them on what it takes to get their home sold, you know what most of them do?   Find a Realtor that tells them what they want to hear, or who is dumb enough to spend their money, $4 a gallon gas, $.35 a copy, thousands of cell phone minutes trying to convince them that their home is overpriced and hundreds of dollars on advertising on something that they know will not sell just to have a sign in the yard.  They are hoping for the one buyer that may call on the sign so they can go sell them one of the GREAT priced homes that are out there.  We work for free until we get paid; we are the only industry that does this.

If you knew me as you say you do, you would know that I told people in 2005 and 2006, if they were going to buy they better be prepared to stay a while.  The home prices in Jacksonville did not meet our incomes.   Much of the money that was fueling this economy was from outside investors.  I told investors in August of 2005 to go home and that I would not put my name to a contract.  I told my past clients that wanted to jump in and invest, that it was too late, and that if it was me I would not buy.  So before you go telling people that you know me get your facts straight!

Selling a home is not easy right now, it is hard work, but it can be done.  You can sell your house if you are aggressive.  Nobody was complaining when they were walking away from the table with a $100,000 in their pocket in two years.   Did people think this was going to continue?  This market is about supply and demand.  Pure economics, when supply is low, prices go up, when supply is high, prices go down.  This is college economics 101.  What many people do not realize is that they re-bought their homes when they refinanced, and took out home equity lines of credit to pay off consumer debt, car loans, fancy trips, home improvements or spent it just to live.  Many were living beyond their means.   

When I started in real estate in 1998 it was almost impossible to sell a house that someone did not own for several years, it was the norm, people got spoiled in the past 5 years.  Most  Realtors have never seen a market like this and they just let the sellers tell them what they wanted and the Realtors did it just to please the customers..  Instead, some of us would not take all of the overpriced listings and sat out and waited for priced to drop.  What I am telling you is that I am listing homes, that are fairly priced  to the market and show well, and they are selling. You may need to stay in your home for a couple of years, but isn’t this homes were built for, to live in them, not for a way to fatten someone’s bank account.

Just think of it this way, Wal Mart would not put inventory in their stores that they knew would not sell because it is too expensive.  They adjust with the market.  Real estate is unusual, in that the sellers set their own price, the Realtors take on the cost of selling it.  Many homes could have sold if they would have listened to their Realtor sooner. Now prices are dropping, and you can get a good value, does this mean that they will not go lower, NO, but there are good deals out there if you look.  People need to buy and people need to sell.  My job is to match those people up and get them in a home.

I also feel that there are only really about 1/3 of the homes on the market that are really sellable.  The bottom 1/3 these are homes that are a great price, good condition and the seller can afford to sell.  The other 1/3 of homes are short sales or foreclosures that can take up to 6 weeks for the bank to give you an answer.  The agents or sellers put a price on the house that they think it will sell for and then wait for the bank to respond.  You can put an offer in on one of these properties and wait 6 weeks only to find out the bank counters above asking price.  The other sellers are sellers who are dreaming in a past life, they are testing the waters to see what might happen.  No buyer or bank for that matter is going to lend money for a house that is overvalued.  The lenders do not want to be in the real estate business, they want to lend money for homes that have collateral.

In response to me advertising, I was not advertising, I was stating the market as I see it.  I am a Realtor with over 10 years of experience. It is the consumers call to say whether I am an expert or not.   By the way there are so called experts that are trying to sell services on this blog. Just look under experts and you will see a staging company with tons of blogs selling her services..  Blogging is a way for people to express their opinions and that is what I did.  I did not ask for anyone to call me.