The "Misinformation" Highway
"Misinformation" is not a real word but it works. We read articles and such daily giving us information we believe, or don't believe often based upon who is saying it. We all tend to believe or not believe an entity, or individual that has met our personal guidelines for being reputable. There is SO MUCH information out there it boggles the mind at times, and can get us in trouble if we're not careful about how we pass it along. Along with many others the current housing market has resulted in alot of extra effort in my job so while I always pay attention to what is going on I found an article yesterday that gives me cause for concern about the information I am getting. Below is an example of what I am referring to. It was taken from a daily report I receive via the Wall Street Journal. "Tracking housing values is harder than tracking stocks. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s index and the gloomier Standard & Poor’s Case/Shiller index track home prices with methods considered reliable, analysts say. Both look at repeat sales of the same houses over time, based on a concept developed in the 1980s by Karl Case of Wellesley College and Robert Shiller of Yale University. But OFHEO’s index says home prices rose nationally by 1.8 percent between the third quarters of 2006 and 2007; while the S&P/Case-Shiller national index of home prices was down 4.5 percent in the same period – a discrepancy that persists even though both barometers avoid distortions that occur in other widely cited measures, including the fluctuations caused by the sale of high-priced homes. What causes the discrepancy? The bottom line is economists can point to some differences, but overall they don’t know what causes the gap. And as some analysts have pointed out, with any luck, by the time they figure it out, we’ll be out of this slump and won’t care any more." How much is something effected by conflicting information, like the housing market? I'm even reading about the debate over the states population growth. How many are coming versus how many are going and why. I think the truly intelligent thing to do is read all you can and then go "Hmmm". Feel free to change the course of the blog, it's not really meant to be all inclusive to the current housing market. You can comment on the reliability of the excess of conflicting information out there in general. Does anyone ever feel overwhelmed by all of it? I know I do. What's that old saying about believing only half of what you hear etc? Related: Report Abuse | Marsha's blog | login or register to post comments | printer friendly version | Tags: housing market | real estate | research | statistics.blogs
Submitted by SoloVoce on Tue, 02/19/2008 - 10:07am.
Marsha, Great view on a subject near & dear to all of us. One other problem along this line, taking your example, is that when one reads conflicting information, one has to get the originators of the information together in order for them to justify & explain their statistics. How, is the problem. If it were just a problem of two people giving conflicting info, it would be rather easy. Get them together & tell them to justify & explain. I'm not sure how John or Jane public can do that with a corporation. It would be nice, though. JATFUR. RichK Submitted by read44 on Tue, 02/19/2008 - 10:14am.
Marsha, I have always heard that saying as "Believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see." I think about that all of the time. I do think that there is so much information available online now that I could have maintained an A average in school if I had had the information highway available to me then.
Submitted by Marsha on Tue, 02/19/2008 - 10:30am.
When you add disinformation to it, someone who intentionally wants to mislead you for a myriad of reasons, it gets even worse.
Submitted by Baxley on Tue, 02/19/2008 - 9:18pm.
Specifically re info about the housing market, I agree 100% that there is too much of it. Who, what, when, why, etc. Bottom line, there is not a lot going on. Hardly anything. I don't need anyone with a PhD after his/her name, or working for the Wall Street Journal to tell me that. I think "organic" information - from the field, if you will - is more reliable. All one has to do is drive around Clay County and you will see that the housing market is dead. Nothing but For Sale signs everywhere, and a bunch of people out of work. Time to re-tool. I will say I agree with what was written in today's TU re people moving to FL - people outside of FL can't sell their homes where they are, so fewer are relocating here. I really believe the FL real estate boom is over and done with - for several years (7-10) at least. As several industry veterans have told me, as painful as this is, it is actually good for us all. Re too much info in general - there is so much "stuff" out there to read, you can find info that will support your position on an issue, no matter what your position is. One "reliable" source will say YES, and another will say NO. It is confusing, and makes me even more skeptical, not less, of the stuff I read. I think Rich is right - consider the source carefully. Submitted by Angela on Tue, 02/19/2008 - 9:51pm.
Baxley it is a supply and demand issue. When that is corrected along with the housing prices (more affordable) it will all work out. Along with the 10 top fastest falling markets a good article should show the 10 top fastest growing markets. Then they should come up with a national average. Which is generally somewhere above us the fastest falling but below the fast growing.
Submitted by whitewolf on Wed, 02/20/2008 - 10:48am.
What I look at in the housing market is the number of cases of bankrupsey that are listed in the paper. It seems to grow longer each day. Also the houses up for sale grows longer each day. The gimme now generation went with ARM. Even at 20 years old I knew that this was a bad idea. I don't feel that citizens should bail out people who made a bad choices. Life is life and deal with it. You want to max out your credit card, deal with it. Eat beans and rice until you get caught up. I do not feel sorry for people who get themselves in a bind by over living their status. One half of your paycheck should go to domicile and utilities. 1/4 for food and clothing. 1/8 for entertainment. 1/8 to a savings account.
Those who give up freedom for security have neither. Submitted by Angela on Wed, 02/20/2008 - 11:02am.
Those who made bad choices are getting a sweet bail out. Government to the rescue or should I say taxpayers. Because I think the government is backing those loans in the housing market. Why are there such a large number of people filing for bankruptcy in Clay County? I have been wondering what's up with that indicator. But I haven't seen any reports in the news. Submitted by clayvoter on Wed, 02/20/2008 - 11:31am.
I don't know about bankruptcy, but this week the news said that Clay ranked 7out of 67 counties in foreclosures. People are talking about ...Here are the recent blog postings with the most comments. |
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Yes Marsha, I agree with you---Information Overload. One has to Cultivate the Art of Reading bewteen the Lines...